By Mark Tapscott
Seventy-three percent of respondents just before Christmas said they think it’s “unlikely” or “not at all likely” two-thirds of the Senate will vote to convict President Donald Trump on either of the two impeachment charges approved by House Democrats.
“Three-out-of-four voters (73 percent) say Trump is unlikely to be forced out of the presidency, with 47 percent who feel it’s ‘not at all likely,’” according to Rasmussen Reports, which interviewed 1,000 likely voters December 22-23.
The margin of error is plus or minus three percent, with a 95 percent confidence level. Surveys of likely voters are typically considered more accurate than polls based on registered voters or adults.
“Sixty percent of Democrats see Trump’s removal from office as unlikely, although that compares to 81 percent of Republicans and 78 percent of voters not affiliated with either major political party,” Rasmussen said.
Even among voters who strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance since he upset former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election only 28 percent expect him to be removed from office by the Senate.
Party loyalty among congressional Republicans is seen among most Democrats (69 percent) as the biggest obstacle to that outcome, according to Rasmussen.
But an almost identical 67 percent of Republicans told Rasmussen that “the bigger roadblock is a lack of convincing evidence” supporting the House case for impeachment.
Younger voters are significantly more likely to expect a Trump conviction, with slightly less than half of Blacks, 47 percent, seeing that outcome as likely, according to Rasmussen. Only 17 percent of Whites and 33 percent of other minorities think the president’s removal is likely.
Overall, support for the House impeachment votes in the survey was 48 percent, compared to 46 percent who opposed the votes.
In a related Rasmussen survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted Dec. 18-19, Trump appeared to be winning the public debate about the legitimacy of the House Democrats’ impeachment drive.
Fifty-one percent of the respondents agreed with the statement that “this impeachment represents an unprecedented and unconstitutional abuse of power by Democrat lawmakers unequalled in nearly two-and-a-half centuries of American legislative history.”
A slightly smaller percent of the respondents, 48 percent, agreed with the statement that “our democracy is what is at stake … the President has engaged in abuse of power, undermining our national security and jeopardizing the integrity of our elections.” Forty-six percent of the respondents disagreed with the statement, which was taken from a Pelosi news conference.
Rasmussen did not tell respondents that Trump and Pelosi were the sources for the quotes.
Jim Manley, former communications director for then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), told The Epoch Times Monday that “the fact there are doubts out there will have no impact on the Senate.”
Americans for Limited Government (ALG) President Richard Manning told The Epoch Times Monday the Rasmussen survey “confirms what most people know anecdotally about impeachment, it is highly partisan and both sides believe the other is wearing political blinders.”
Manning said the most surprising result in the survey was the “astonishing revelation” that “27 percent of the American public believes that President Trump is likely to be convicted.”
The ALG chief said the 27 percent is “likely their most ardent presidential caucus and primary voters which explains why their contenders continue to lurch to the left abandoning any pretense of caring about the former base of their party, the blue-collar worker.”
Trump has a 46 percent approval rating in Rasmussen’s latest daily tracking poll, compared to 53 percent disapproval.